AFL Round 13 Tips & Predictions 2022: H2H Value Picks & Odds

Geelong’s overall season strength is the obvious lean, but Adelaide’s home-venue edge is a real counterweight here, and the opponent-weakness lean also points the Crows’ way. That combination is usually where live underdog prices get exposed: the favourite is “better”, but the game state doesn’t suit them as cleanly as the market assumes.

At around 2.25, Adelaide don’t need to be perfect; they just need to win often enough to justify being closer to a 50–50 shot than a 40–60 one. Geelong at 1.67 is the opposite story: it’s a price that demands control, and Footylab’s projection doesn’t hand them that much breathing room.

Hawthorn’s leans stack neatly: season strength, recent form, and a home-venue edge all point the same way. When all three line up, it’s usually not the week to get cute with the outsider unless you’ve got a very specific matchup reason.

The Dogs have confirmed changes, including Ryan Gardner named to play his first match of the 2025 campaign. That sort of inclusion can help structurally, but it’s also a reminder this Bulldogs setup is still being patched and tweaked rather than humming.

Source: AFL Team: Round 13 v Hawthorn

Hawthorn at 1.34 is short, but Footylab says it’s still not short enough given the profile gap. Western Bulldogs at 3.30 is the trap price: it looks tempting, but the numbers have them winning closer to “one in five” than “one in three”.

The Dockers’ edge is clear in the broad strokes: season strength and recent form both lean Fremantle. North Melbourne’s best angle in the leans is opponent weakness, which is really just saying: if Freo don’t bring their standard, the Roos can hang around.

This is also a match where availability matters more than usual, and the league-wide injury report is worth keeping an eye on for late movement either way.

Source: Medical room: The full AFL injury list, R12

Fremantle around 1.30 and North around 3.90 is pretty much the story Footylab sees too. If you’re betting it, you’re mostly betting your own read on game script rather than a clear pricing mistake.

Gold Coast’s case is built on shape, not hype: recent form leans their way, they get a home-venue edge, and the opponent-weakness lean also points to the Suns being well placed to punish Brisbane if the Lions aren’t sharp.

At 1.73, you’re not paying “dominant favourite” tax, which is why it stands out. Brisbane at 2.30 is the flip side: it’s a very backable-looking number for a strong club, but Footylab’s projection has them winning closer to three in ten than four in ten.

Port’s season strength is the headline lean, but it’s being countered by two important signals: West Coast’s recent form lean and an opponent-weakness lean that also points to the Eagles. That’s the classic setup for an upset that shouldn’t really be called an upset.

West Coast at 2.60 is the kind of price that says “you need a lot to go right.” Footylab’s projection says you don’t. Port at 1.58, meanwhile, is asking them to win like a clear top-side on the road, and the numbers just aren’t there after the availability-adjusted read.

Sydney still own the main levers: recent form, season strength and the SCG edge all lean red and white. The issue is simply how much certainty the price is demanding versus what the numbers are willing to grant.

At 1.25, you’re paying for a clean, professional Sydney performance. St Kilda at 4.10 is big, but Footylab doesn’t upgrade them enough to call it value either. It’s more a “don’t overpay for the favourite” game than a “load up on the dog” game.

Carlton’s recent form and season strength leans are massive, so the Blues being favourite makes sense. The hook is the opponent-weakness lean pointing to Essendon: it suggests there’s a version of this matchup where Carlton’s strengths don’t automatically translate into a comfortable four-quarter result.

Carlton’s injury update is worth factoring into any late-week confidence, because availability is often what turns a “better team” into a “better team at a short price.”

Source: Injury news: Cottrell sidelined, tests for two

Carlton at 1.23 is a statement price. Footylab doesn’t fully buy it. Essendon at 5.00 is the number doing the heavy lifting: you don’t need the Bombers to be better overall, you just need them to be competitive often enough for that outsider quote to be overshooting reality.

Melbourne’s season strength is the cleanest separator in the leans, with recent form also pointing their way. There’s still a warning light in the opponent-weakness lean towards Collingwood, which is basically the model acknowledging the Pies can drag teams into uncomfortable games when the contest gets chaotic.

Melbourne around 1.83 is a workable favourite price if you think they control the big moments. Collingwood at 2.10 isn’t outrageous either, but Footylab sees it as a little light on justification compared to Melbourne’s overall edge.