AFL market detail

H2H market

Ripoff

Gold Coast SunsvsBrisbane Lions

Brisbane Lions at Neds.

Odds 2.25Fair Odds N/AMargin 5.4% · GoodSat, 6 June, 7:15 amOdds updated Sun, 31 May, 9:53 pm UTCMatch page

Stats implied win %Stats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

30.1%

Odds implied win %Odds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

42.2%

At Neds

Footylab predicted edgeFootylab predicted edgeHow much Footylab thinks the H2H side may be mispriced, in percentage points.

-12.1pp

Probability band · Heavy favourite 85-100%

MarginMarginBookmaker margin or ATS margin proxy.

5.4% · Good

Market average oddsMarket AverageThe average available price across comparable bookmaker quotes.

N/A

Relative edge to marketMarket EdgeHow the selected price compares with the current market range.

N/A

Summary

Brisbane Lions projects at 30.1% from AFL weighted stats after availability adjustment.

Bookmaker comparison

Compare the same six market metrics across each bookmaker, with the selected bookmaker highlighted.

TAB

Odds updated Sun, 31 May, 9:53 pm UTC

Brisbane Lions

Best price

2.30

Stats implied win %Stats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

30.1%

Odds implied win %Odds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

41.3%

Overall valueOverall ValueFor ATS markets only: the value/fair/ripoff score centered around zero.

-11.2

MarginMarginBookmaker margin or ATS margin proxy.

5.2% · Good

Market average oddsMarket AverageThe average available price across comparable bookmaker quotes.

N/A

Relative edge to marketMarket EdgeHow the selected price compares with the current market range.

N/A

Collected Sun, 31 May, 9:53 pm UTC

SportsBet

Odds updated Sun, 31 May, 9:52 pm UTC

Brisbane Lions

2.28

Stats implied win %Stats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

30.1%

Odds implied win %Odds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

41.7%

Overall valueOverall ValueFor ATS markets only: the value/fair/ripoff score centered around zero.

-11.6

MarginMarginBookmaker margin or ATS margin proxy.

5.2% · Good

Market average oddsMarket AverageThe average available price across comparable bookmaker quotes.

N/A

Relative edge to marketMarket EdgeHow the selected price compares with the current market range.

N/A

Collected Sun, 31 May, 9:53 pm UTC

PointsBet (AU)

Odds updated Sun, 31 May, 9:53 pm UTC

Brisbane Lions

2.25

Stats implied win %Stats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

30.1%

Odds implied win %Odds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

42.0%

Overall valueOverall ValueFor ATS markets only: the value/fair/ripoff score centered around zero.

-11.9

MarginMarginBookmaker margin or ATS margin proxy.

5.8% · Good

Market average oddsMarket AverageThe average available price across comparable bookmaker quotes.

N/A

Relative edge to marketMarket EdgeHow the selected price compares with the current market range.

N/A

Collected Sun, 31 May, 9:53 pm UTC

Neds

Odds updated Sun, 31 May, 9:53 pm UTC

Brisbane Lions

Selected bookmaker

2.25

Stats implied win %Stats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

30.1%

Odds implied win %Odds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

42.2%

Overall valueOverall ValueFor ATS markets only: the value/fair/ripoff score centered around zero.

-12.1

MarginMarginBookmaker margin or ATS margin proxy.

5.4% · Good

Market average oddsMarket AverageThe average available price across comparable bookmaker quotes.

N/A

Relative edge to marketMarket EdgeHow the selected price compares with the current market range.

N/A

Collected Sun, 31 May, 9:53 pm UTC

Ladbrokes

Odds updated Sun, 31 May, 9:52 pm UTC

Brisbane Lions

2.25

Stats implied win %Stats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

30.1%

Odds implied win %Odds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

42.2%

Overall valueOverall ValueFor ATS markets only: the value/fair/ripoff score centered around zero.

-12.1

MarginMarginBookmaker margin or ATS margin proxy.

5.4% · Good

Market average oddsMarket AverageThe average available price across comparable bookmaker quotes.

N/A

Relative edge to marketMarket EdgeHow the selected price compares with the current market range.

N/A

Collected Sun, 31 May, 9:53 pm UTC

Unibet

Odds updated Sun, 31 May, 9:52 pm UTC

Brisbane Lions

2.20

Stats implied win %Stats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

30.1%

Odds implied win %Odds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

42.9%

Overall valueOverall ValueFor ATS markets only: the value/fair/ripoff score centered around zero.

-12.8

MarginMarginBookmaker margin or ATS margin proxy.

6.1% · Average

Market average oddsMarket AverageThe average available price across comparable bookmaker quotes.

N/A

Relative edge to marketMarket EdgeHow the selected price compares with the current market range.

N/A

Collected Sun, 31 May, 9:53 pm UTC

Betr

Odds updated Sun, 31 May, 9:53 pm UTC

Brisbane Lions

2.10

Stats implied win %Stats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

30.1%

Odds implied win %Odds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

45.0%

Overall valueOverall ValueFor ATS markets only: the value/fair/ripoff score centered around zero.

-14.9

MarginMarginBookmaker margin or ATS margin proxy.

5.8% · Good

Market average oddsMarket AverageThe average available price across comparable bookmaker quotes.

N/A

Relative edge to marketMarket EdgeHow the selected price compares with the current market range.

N/A

Collected Sun, 31 May, 9:53 pm UTC

Stats Breakdown

The same stat breakdown shown on the match page, focused on this market type. Metric definitions

H2H stats breakdown

Quick interpretation first, then recent results, then the category metrics underneath.

Team

Mini summary

Brisbane Lions

Best priceOddsThe quoted decimal price for the selection.

TAB|2.30

Stats impliedStats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

30.1%

Odds impliedOdds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

41.3%

Avg value scoreOverall ValueFor ATS markets only: the value/fair/ripoff score centered around zero.

-12.4 pts

Stats ratingStats RatingA 0-100 rating for the underlying stats profile.

41.1

Availability mult

0.63 (0.93 rel)

Wins last 5Wins last 5Team wins across the most recent five available results.

2/5

Wins last 10Wins last 10Team wins across the most recent ten available results.

6/10

Brisbane Lions rate behind Gold Coast Suns on the current stats profile.

5/9 stat categories favour Gold Coast Suns.

Last 5 games

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
30 May	Fremantle Dockers	L	78-103
24 May	Greater Western Sydney Giants	L	88-166
14 May	Geelong Cats	L	76-117
8 May	Carlton Blues	W	100-89
2 May	Essendon Bombers	W	143-79

Recent Form

Brisbane Lions score 18.9 | weight 0.24 | weighted contribution 4.5

Expand metrics

Metric	Brisbane Lions	Gold Coast Suns	Direction	Edge note
Recent performance scoreRecent performanceA recency-weighted result score across the latest five team games.	20	60	Higher is better	-0.5
Recent Win Rate	0.4	0.6	Higher is better	-0.2
Recent Avg Margin	-13.8	3.8	Higher is better	-1.0
Recent Avg Score For	97	87.6	Higher is better	+0.1
Recent Avg Score Against	110.8	83.8	Lower is better	-0.1
Recent Avg Scoring Shots For	27	23.6	Higher is better	+0.1
Recent Avg Scoring Shots Against	28.8	24.8	Lower is better	-0.1
Recent Inside 50 Diff	-3.2	4.8	Higher is better	-1.0
Recent Clearance Diff	5.2	-7.4	Higher is better	+1.0
Recent Contested Possession Diff	-3.8	-2.8	Higher is better	-0.2
Recent Turnover Diff	7.2	-4	Lower is better	-1.0

Home / Venue Edge

Brisbane Lions score 33.3 | weight 0.14 | weighted contribution 4.7

Expand metrics

Metric	Brisbane Lions	Gold Coast Suns	Direction	Edge note
Match role	Away	Home	N/A	N/A
Base home advantage applied to Gold Coast Suns	Not applied	Applied	N/A	-0.2
Gold Coast Suns current-season home win rate	N/A	1	Higher is better	-0.1
Gold Coast Suns current-season home point differential	N/A	33	Higher is better	-0.1
Brisbane Lions current-season away win rate	0.5	N/A	Higher is better	+0.0
Brisbane Lions current-season away point differential	-0.167	N/A	Higher is better	+0.1
Gold Coast Suns current-season venue win rate at People First Stadium	N/A	1	Higher is better	-0.0
Gold Coast Suns current-season venue point differential at People First Stadium	N/A	36	Higher is better	-0.0
Brisbane Lions current-season venue win rate at People First Stadium	0.5	N/A	Higher is better	0.0
Brisbane Lions current-season venue point differential at People First Stadium	0	N/A	Higher is better	0.0
Gold Coast Suns home sample size	N/A	6	N/A	N/A
Brisbane Lions away sample size	6	N/A	N/A	N/A
Venue sample size	0	4	N/A	N/A

Opponent Weakness

Brisbane Lions score 40.4 | weight 0.07 | weighted contribution 2.8

Expand metrics

Metric	Brisbane Lions	Gold Coast Suns	Direction	Edge note
Opponent Loss Rate	0.5	0.417	Higher is better	+0.1
Opponent Avg Margin Against	-3.75	-8.833	Higher is better	+0.4
Opponent Avg Score Against	96.583	86.583	Higher is better	+0.1
Opponent Avg Goals Against	14.167	12.417	Higher is better	+0.1
Opponent Avg Scoring Shots Against	25.75	24.5	Higher is better	+0.0
Opponent Avg Inside 50S Against	54.75	51.5	Higher is better	+0.0
Opponent Avg Marks Inside 50 Against	12.833	11.75	Higher is better	+0.0
Opponent Avg Clearance Diff Allowed	-9.083	7.5	Higher is better	-1.0
Opponent Avg Contested Possession Diff Allowed	-5.25	3.417	Higher is better	-1.0
Opponent Avg Turnovers	66	63.917	Higher is better	+0.0
Opponent Avg Clangers	54.5	54.667	Higher is better	-0.0
Opponent Avg Contest Def Loss Percentage	N/A	N/A	Higher is better	N/A
Opponent Avg Pressure Acts	N/A	N/A	Lower is better	N/A
Opponent Avg Intercepts	62.833	68.25	Lower is better	+0.0

Contest, Clearance & Ruck

Brisbane Lions score 59.0 | weight 0.09 | weighted contribution 5.3

Expand metrics

Metric	Brisbane Lions	Gold Coast Suns	Direction	Edge note
Avg Contested Possessions	130.917	126.667	Higher is better	+0.0
Avg Contested Possession Rate	36.718	35.937	Higher is better	+0.0
Avg Ground Ball Gets	N/A	N/A	Higher is better	N/A
Avg Clearances	41.75	31.917	Higher is better	+0.1
Avg Centre Clearances	15.917	12.083	Higher is better	+0.1
Avg Stoppage Clearances	25.833	19.833	Higher is better	+0.1
Avg Hitouts To Advantage	N/A	N/A	Higher is better	N/A
Avg Hitout To Advantage Rate	N/A	N/A	Higher is better	N/A
Avg Hitout Win Percentage	N/A	N/A	Higher is better	N/A
Avg Contested Marks	10.417	7.833	Higher is better	+0.1

Season Strength

Brisbane Lions score 58.1 | weight 0.12 | weighted contribution 7.0

Expand metrics

Metric	Brisbane Lions	Gold Coast Suns	Direction	Edge note
Season Win Rate	0.5	0.636	Higher is better	-0.1
Season Avg Margin	3.75	14.455	Higher is better	-0.6
Season Avg Score For	100.333	99.818	Higher is better	+0.0
Season Avg Score Against	96.583	85.364	Lower is better	-0.1
Season Avg Scoring Shot Diff	2.083	2.182	Higher is better	-0.0
Season Avg Inside 50 Diff	2.167	6.909	Higher is better	-0.5
Season Avg Clearance Diff	9.083	-6.545	Higher is better	+1.0
Season Avg Contested Possession Diff	5.25	-3.091	Higher is better	+1.0

Defence & Pressure

Brisbane Lions score 45.9 | weight 0.09 | weighted contribution 4.1

Expand metrics

Metric	Brisbane Lions	Gold Coast Suns	Direction	Edge note
Avg Score Against	96.583	86.583	Lower is better	-0.1
Avg Goals Against	14.167	12.417	Lower is better	-0.1
Avg Scoring Shots Against	25.75	24.5	Lower is better	-0.0
Avg Inside 50S Against	54.75	51.5	Lower is better	-0.0
Avg Marks Inside 50 Against	12.833	11.75	Lower is better	-0.0
Avg Tackles	46	54.333	Higher is better	-0.1
Avg Tackles Inside 50	9.583	10.75	Higher is better	-0.1
Avg Pressure Acts	N/A	N/A	Higher is better	N/A
Avg Def Half Pressure Acts	N/A	N/A	Higher is better	N/A
Avg Intercepts	62.833	68.25	Higher is better	-0.0
Avg Intercept Marks	N/A	N/A	Higher is better	N/A
Avg Spoils	N/A	N/A	Higher is better	N/A
Avg One Percenters	42.333	41.583	Higher is better	+0.0
Avg Contest Def Losses	N/A	N/A	Lower is better	N/A
Avg Contest Def Loss Percentage	N/A	N/A	Lower is better	N/A

Attack

Brisbane Lions score 52.3 | weight 0.13 | weighted contribution 6.8

Expand metrics

Metric	Brisbane Lions	Gold Coast Suns	Direction	Edge note
Avg Score For	100.333	95.417	Higher is better	+0.0
Avg Goals For	14.5	14	Higher is better	+0.0
Avg Scoring Shots For	27.833	25.417	Higher is better	+0.0
Avg Shots At Goal	30.833	28.083	Higher is better	+0.0
Avg Inside 50S	56.917	56.917	Higher is better	0.0
Avg Marks Inside 50	13.333	11.833	Higher is better	+0.1
Avg Score Involvements	N/A	N/A	Higher is better	N/A
Avg Score Launches	N/A	N/A	Higher is better	N/A
Avg Goal Assists	10.333	10.083	Higher is better	+0.0
Avg Goal Accuracy	46.667	49.35	Higher is better	-0.0
Avg Shot Efficiency	54.142	49.25	Higher is better	+0.0
Avg Goal Efficiency	25.308	24.533	Higher is better	+0.0

Territory & Ball Movement

Brisbane Lions score 48.5 | weight 0.09 | weighted contribution 4.4

Expand metrics

Metric	Brisbane Lions	Gold Coast Suns	Direction	Edge note
Avg Metres Gained	N/A	N/A	Higher is better	N/A
Avg Inside 50S	56.917	56.917	Higher is better	0.0
Avg Effective Disposals	269.488	274.717	Higher is better	-0.0
Avg Disposal Efficiency	72.283	75.142	Higher is better	-0.0
Avg Effective Kicks	N/A	N/A	Higher is better	N/A
Avg Kick Efficiency	N/A	N/A	Higher is better	N/A
Avg Marks	109.917	89.833	Higher is better	+0.1
Avg Uncontested Possessions	228.25	228.25	Higher is better	0.0
Avg Bounces	6.167	10.083	Higher is better	-0.2

Discipline & Ball Security

Brisbane Lions score 50.2 | weight 0.03 | weighted contribution 1.5

Expand metrics

Metric	Brisbane Lions	Gold Coast Suns	Direction	Edge note
Avg Turnovers	66	63.917	Lower is better	-0.0
Avg Clangers	54.5	54.667	Lower is better	+0.0
Avg Frees Against	18	20.417	Lower is better	+0.1
Avg Frees For	18.25	18.583	Higher is better	-0.0
Avg Disposal Efficiency	72.283	75.142	Higher is better	-0.0
Avg Effective Disposals	269.488	274.717	Higher is better	-0.0