AFL market detail

H2H market

Ripoff

Essendon BombersvsCarlton Blues

Carlton Blues at TAB.

Odds 1.18Fair Odds N/AMargin 4.7% · GoodSun, 7 June, 9:20 amOdds updated Sun, 31 May, 9:37 pm UTCMatch page

Stats implied win %Stats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

67.6%

Odds implied win %Odds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

80.9%

At TAB

Footylab predicted edgeFootylab predicted edgeHow much Footylab thinks the H2H side may be mispriced, in percentage points.

-13.3pp

Probability band · Heavy favourite 85-100%

MarginMarginBookmaker margin or ATS margin proxy.

4.7% · Good

Market average oddsMarket AverageThe average available price across comparable bookmaker quotes.

N/A

Relative edge to marketMarket EdgeHow the selected price compares with the current market range.

N/A

Summary

Carlton Blues projects at 67.6% from AFL weighted stats after availability adjustment.

Bookmaker comparison

Compare the same six market metrics across each bookmaker, with the selected bookmaker highlighted.

Unibet

Odds updated Sun, 31 May, 9:37 pm UTC

Carlton Blues

Best price

1.23

Stats implied win %Stats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

67.6%

Odds implied win %Odds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

76.3%

Overall valueOverall ValueFor ATS markets only: the value/fair/ripoff score centered around zero.

-8.6

MarginMarginBookmaker margin or ATS margin proxy.

6.6% · Average

Market average oddsMarket AverageThe average available price across comparable bookmaker quotes.

N/A

Relative edge to marketMarket EdgeHow the selected price compares with the current market range.

N/A

Collected Sun, 31 May, 9:38 pm UTC

PointsBet (AU)

Odds updated Sun, 31 May, 9:37 pm UTC

Carlton Blues

1.20

Stats implied win %Stats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

67.6%

Odds implied win %Odds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

77.8%

Overall valueOverall ValueFor ATS markets only: the value/fair/ripoff score centered around zero.

-10.2

MarginMarginBookmaker margin or ATS margin proxy.

7.1% · Average

Market average oddsMarket AverageThe average available price across comparable bookmaker quotes.

N/A

Relative edge to marketMarket EdgeHow the selected price compares with the current market range.

N/A

Collected Sun, 31 May, 9:38 pm UTC

SportsBet

Odds updated Sun, 31 May, 9:37 pm UTC

Carlton Blues

1.22

Stats implied win %Stats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

67.6%

Odds implied win %Odds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

78.1%

Overall valueOverall ValueFor ATS markets only: the value/fair/ripoff score centered around zero.

-10.5

MarginMarginBookmaker margin or ATS margin proxy.

5.0% · Good

Market average oddsMarket AverageThe average available price across comparable bookmaker quotes.

N/A

Relative edge to marketMarket EdgeHow the selected price compares with the current market range.

N/A

Collected Sun, 31 May, 9:38 pm UTC

Betr

Odds updated Sun, 31 May, 9:37 pm UTC

Carlton Blues

1.20

Stats implied win %Stats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

67.6%

Odds implied win %Odds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

78.9%

Overall valueOverall ValueFor ATS markets only: the value/fair/ripoff score centered around zero.

-11.3

MarginMarginBookmaker margin or ATS margin proxy.

5.6% · Good

Market average oddsMarket AverageThe average available price across comparable bookmaker quotes.

N/A

Relative edge to marketMarket EdgeHow the selected price compares with the current market range.

N/A

Collected Sun, 31 May, 9:38 pm UTC

TAB

Odds updated Sun, 31 May, 9:37 pm UTC

Carlton Blues

Selected bookmaker

1.18

Stats implied win %Stats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

67.6%

Odds implied win %Odds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

80.9%

Overall valueOverall ValueFor ATS markets only: the value/fair/ripoff score centered around zero.

-13.3

MarginMarginBookmaker margin or ATS margin proxy.

4.7% · Good

Market average oddsMarket AverageThe average available price across comparable bookmaker quotes.

N/A

Relative edge to marketMarket EdgeHow the selected price compares with the current market range.

N/A

Collected Sun, 31 May, 9:38 pm UTC

Stats Breakdown

The same stat breakdown shown on the match page, focused on this market type. Metric definitions

H2H stats breakdown

Quick interpretation first, then recent results, then the category metrics underneath.

Team

Mini summary

Carlton Blues

Best priceOddsThe quoted decimal price for the selection.

Unibet|1.23

Stats impliedStats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

67.6%

Odds impliedOdds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

76.3%

Avg value scoreOverall ValueFor ATS markets only: the value/fair/ripoff score centered around zero.

-10.8 pts

Stats ratingStats RatingA 0-100 rating for the underlying stats profile.

64.2

Availability mult

0.62 (1.06 rel)

Wins last 5Wins last 5Team wins across the most recent five available results.

3/5

Wins last 10Wins last 10Team wins across the most recent ten available results.

3/10

Carlton Blues are favoured by the current stats profile.

6/9 stat categories favour Carlton Blues.

Last 5 games

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
29 May	Geelong Cats	W	88-84
23 May	Port Adelaide Power	W	92-58
16 May	Western Bulldogs	W	74-62
8 May	Brisbane Lions	L	89-100
2 May	St Kilda Saints	L	69-108

Recent Form

Carlton Blues score 94.2 | weight 0.24 | weighted contribution 22.6

Expand metrics

Metric	Carlton Blues	Essendon Bombers	Direction	Edge note
Recent performance scoreRecent performanceA recency-weighted result score across the latest five team games.	80	0	Higher is better	+1.0
Recent Win Rate	0.6	0	Higher is better	+1.0
Recent Avg Margin	0	-33.8	Higher is better	+1.0
Recent Avg Score For	82.4	68	Higher is better	+0.1
Recent Avg Score Against	82.4	101.8	Lower is better	+0.1
Recent Avg Scoring Shots For	25.4	21	Higher is better	+0.1
Recent Avg Scoring Shots Against	23.4	25.8	Lower is better	+0.0
Recent Inside 50 Diff	4.2	-2.6	Higher is better	+1.0
Recent Clearance Diff	-1.4	4	Higher is better	-1.0
Recent Contested Possession Diff	11.6	-1	Higher is better	+1.0
Recent Turnover Diff	-3.6	2.4	Lower is better	+1.0

Season Strength

Carlton Blues score 89.7 | weight 0.12 | weighted contribution 10.8

Expand metrics

Metric	Carlton Blues	Essendon Bombers	Direction	Edge note
Season Win Rate	0.333	0.083	Higher is better	+0.6
Season Avg Margin	-11.583	-31.75	Higher is better	+0.5
Season Avg Score For	81.417	75.833	Higher is better	+0.0
Season Avg Score Against	93	107.583	Lower is better	+0.1
Season Avg Scoring Shot Diff	-1.167	-7.167	Higher is better	+0.7
Season Avg Inside 50 Diff	-3.417	-8.75	Higher is better	+0.4
Season Avg Clearance Diff	0	-1.5	Higher is better	+1.0
Season Avg Contested Possession Diff	7.667	-4.333	Higher is better	+1.0

Opponent Weakness

Carlton Blues score 28.1 | weight 0.07 | weighted contribution 2.0

Expand metrics

Metric	Carlton Blues	Essendon Bombers	Direction	Edge note
Opponent Loss Rate	0.667	0.917	Higher is better	-0.2
Opponent Avg Margin Against	11.583	31.75	Higher is better	-0.5
Opponent Avg Score Against	93	107.583	Higher is better	-0.1
Opponent Avg Goals Against	13.583	15.833	Higher is better	-0.1
Opponent Avg Scoring Shots Against	25.083	28.417	Higher is better	-0.1
Opponent Avg Inside 50S Against	54.417	55.417	Higher is better	-0.0
Opponent Avg Marks Inside 50 Against	13.417	16.25	Higher is better	-0.1
Opponent Avg Clearance Diff Allowed	0	1.5	Higher is better	-1.0
Opponent Avg Contested Possession Diff Allowed	-7.667	4.333	Higher is better	-1.0
Opponent Avg Turnovers	63.75	63.833	Higher is better	-0.0
Opponent Avg Clangers	57.833	53.833	Higher is better	+0.0
Opponent Avg Contest Def Loss Percentage	N/A	N/A	Higher is better	N/A
Opponent Avg Pressure Acts	N/A	N/A	Lower is better	N/A
Opponent Avg Intercepts	65.333	61.5	Lower is better	-0.0

Defence & Pressure

Carlton Blues score 56.4 | weight 0.09 | weighted contribution 5.1

Expand metrics

Metric	Carlton Blues	Essendon Bombers	Direction	Edge note
Avg Score Against	93	107.583	Lower is better	+0.1
Avg Goals Against	13.583	15.833	Lower is better	+0.1
Avg Scoring Shots Against	25.083	28.417	Lower is better	+0.1
Avg Inside 50S Against	54.417	55.417	Lower is better	+0.0
Avg Marks Inside 50 Against	13.417	16.25	Lower is better	+0.1
Avg Tackles	54.667	50.333	Higher is better	+0.0
Avg Tackles Inside 50	10.5	9.583	Higher is better	+0.0
Avg Pressure Acts	N/A	N/A	Higher is better	N/A
Avg Def Half Pressure Acts	N/A	N/A	Higher is better	N/A
Avg Intercepts	65.333	61.5	Higher is better	+0.0
Avg Intercept Marks	N/A	N/A	Higher is better	N/A
Avg Spoils	N/A	N/A	Higher is better	N/A
Avg One Percenters	45.833	31.833	Higher is better	+0.2
Avg Contest Def Losses	N/A	N/A	Lower is better	N/A
Avg Contest Def Loss Percentage	N/A	N/A	Lower is better	N/A

Home / Venue Edge

Carlton Blues score 43.9 | weight 0.14 | weighted contribution 6.1

Expand metrics

Metric	Carlton Blues	Essendon Bombers	Direction	Edge note
Match role	Away	Home	N/A	N/A
Base home advantage applied to Essendon Bombers	Not applied	Applied	N/A	-0.2
Essendon Bombers current-season home win rate	N/A	0.167	Higher is better	+0.1
Essendon Bombers current-season home point differential	N/A	-35.5	Higher is better	+0.1
Carlton Blues current-season away win rate	0.167	N/A	Higher is better	-0.0
Carlton Blues current-season away point differential	-15.333	N/A	Higher is better	-0.0
Essendon Bombers current-season venue win rate at MCG	N/A	0	Higher is better	+0.0
Essendon Bombers current-season venue point differential at MCG	N/A	-50	Higher is better	+0.0
Carlton Blues current-season venue win rate at MCG	0.5	N/A	Higher is better	0.0
Carlton Blues current-season venue point differential at MCG	-5	N/A	Higher is better	-0.0
Essendon Bombers home sample size	N/A	6	N/A	N/A
Carlton Blues away sample size	6	N/A	N/A	N/A
Venue sample size	4	4	N/A	N/A

Contest, Clearance & Ruck

Carlton Blues score 54.1 | weight 0.09 | weighted contribution 4.9

Expand metrics

Metric	Carlton Blues	Essendon Bombers	Direction	Edge note
Avg Contested Possessions	132.667	119.333	Higher is better	+0.1
Avg Contested Possession Rate	36.366	33.847	Higher is better	+0.0
Avg Ground Ball Gets	N/A	N/A	Higher is better	N/A
Avg Clearances	34.583	31.833	Higher is better	+0.0
Avg Centre Clearances	11.917	12.667	Higher is better	-0.0
Avg Stoppage Clearances	22.667	19.167	Higher is better	+0.1
Avg Hitouts To Advantage	N/A	N/A	Higher is better	N/A
Avg Hitout To Advantage Rate	N/A	N/A	Higher is better	N/A
Avg Hitout Win Percentage	N/A	N/A	Higher is better	N/A
Avg Contested Marks	9.167	7.833	Higher is better	+0.1

Attack

Carlton Blues score 51.8 | weight 0.13 | weighted contribution 6.7

Expand metrics

Metric	Carlton Blues	Essendon Bombers	Direction	Edge note
Avg Score For	81.417	75.833	Higher is better	+0.0
Avg Goals For	11.5	10.917	Higher is better	+0.0
Avg Scoring Shots For	23.917	21.25	Higher is better	+0.1
Avg Shots At Goal	26.75	21.917	Higher is better	+0.1
Avg Inside 50S	51	46.667	Higher is better	+0.0
Avg Marks Inside 50	10.667	10.417	Higher is better	+0.0
Avg Score Involvements	N/A	N/A	Higher is better	N/A
Avg Score Launches	N/A	N/A	Higher is better	N/A
Avg Goal Assists	7.167	8.083	Higher is better	-0.1
Avg Goal Accuracy	43.15	49.8	Higher is better	-0.1
Avg Shot Efficiency	52.892	47.167	Higher is better	+0.1
Avg Goal Efficiency	22.7	23.475	Higher is better	-0.0

Discipline & Ball Security

Carlton Blues score 48.7 | weight 0.03 | weighted contribution 1.5

Expand metrics

Metric	Carlton Blues	Essendon Bombers	Direction	Edge note
Avg Turnovers	63.75	63.833	Lower is better	+0.0
Avg Clangers	57.833	53.833	Lower is better	-0.0
Avg Frees Against	19.917	18.833	Lower is better	-0.0
Avg Frees For	18.75	18.917	Higher is better	-0.0
Avg Disposal Efficiency	72.975	75.142	Higher is better	-0.0
Avg Effective Disposals	274.383	273.067	Higher is better	+0.0

Territory & Ball Movement

Carlton Blues score 50.6 | weight 0.09 | weighted contribution 4.6

Expand metrics

Metric	Carlton Blues	Essendon Bombers	Direction	Edge note
Avg Metres Gained	N/A	N/A	Higher is better	N/A
Avg Inside 50S	51	46.667	Higher is better	+0.0
Avg Effective Disposals	274.383	273.067	Higher is better	+0.0
Avg Disposal Efficiency	72.975	75.142	Higher is better	-0.0
Avg Effective Kicks	N/A	N/A	Higher is better	N/A
Avg Kick Efficiency	N/A	N/A	Higher is better	N/A
Avg Marks	93.75	91.833	Higher is better	+0.0
Avg Uncontested Possessions	233	233.667	Higher is better	-0.0
Avg Bounces	6.833	7.25	Higher is better	-0.0