AFL market detail

H2H market

Value

Essendon BombersvsCarlton Blues

Essendon Bombers at TAB.

Odds 5.00Fair Odds N/AMargin 4.7% · GoodSun, 7 June, 9:20 amOdds updated Sun, 31 May, 9:37 pm UTCMatch page

Stats implied win %Stats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

32.4%

Odds implied win %Odds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

19.1%

At TAB

Footylab predicted edgeFootylab predicted edgeHow much Footylab thinks the H2H side may be mispriced, in percentage points.

+13.3pp

Probability band · Heavy favourite 85-100%

MarginMarginBookmaker margin or ATS margin proxy.

4.7% · Good

Market average oddsMarket AverageThe average available price across comparable bookmaker quotes.

N/A

Relative edge to marketMarket EdgeHow the selected price compares with the current market range.

N/A

Summary

Essendon Bombers projects at 32.4% from AFL weighted stats after availability adjustment.

Bookmaker comparison

Compare the same six market metrics across each bookmaker, with the selected bookmaker highlighted.

TAB

Odds updated Sun, 31 May, 9:37 pm UTC

Essendon Bombers

Selected bookmakerBest price

5.00

Stats implied win %Stats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

32.4%

Odds implied win %Odds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

19.1%

Overall valueOverall ValueFor ATS markets only: the value/fair/ripoff score centered around zero.

+13.3

MarginMarginBookmaker margin or ATS margin proxy.

4.7% · Good

Market average oddsMarket AverageThe average available price across comparable bookmaker quotes.

N/A

Relative edge to marketMarket EdgeHow the selected price compares with the current market range.

N/A

Collected Sun, 31 May, 9:38 pm UTC

Betr

Odds updated Sun, 31 May, 9:37 pm UTC

Essendon Bombers

4.50

Stats implied win %Stats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

32.4%

Odds implied win %Odds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

21.1%

Overall valueOverall ValueFor ATS markets only: the value/fair/ripoff score centered around zero.

+11.3

MarginMarginBookmaker margin or ATS margin proxy.

5.6% · Good

Market average oddsMarket AverageThe average available price across comparable bookmaker quotes.

N/A

Relative edge to marketMarket EdgeHow the selected price compares with the current market range.

N/A

Collected Sun, 31 May, 9:38 pm UTC

SportsBet

Odds updated Sun, 31 May, 9:37 pm UTC

Essendon Bombers

4.35

Stats implied win %Stats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

32.4%

Odds implied win %Odds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

21.9%

Overall valueOverall ValueFor ATS markets only: the value/fair/ripoff score centered around zero.

+10.5

MarginMarginBookmaker margin or ATS margin proxy.

5.0% · Good

Market average oddsMarket AverageThe average available price across comparable bookmaker quotes.

N/A

Relative edge to marketMarket EdgeHow the selected price compares with the current market range.

N/A

Collected Sun, 31 May, 9:38 pm UTC

PointsBet (AU)

Odds updated Sun, 31 May, 9:37 pm UTC

Essendon Bombers

4.20

Stats implied win %Stats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

32.4%

Odds implied win %Odds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

22.2%

Overall valueOverall ValueFor ATS markets only: the value/fair/ripoff score centered around zero.

+10.2

MarginMarginBookmaker margin or ATS margin proxy.

7.1% · Average

Market average oddsMarket AverageThe average available price across comparable bookmaker quotes.

N/A

Relative edge to marketMarket EdgeHow the selected price compares with the current market range.

N/A

Collected Sun, 31 May, 9:38 pm UTC

Unibet

Odds updated Sun, 31 May, 9:37 pm UTC

Essendon Bombers

3.95

Stats implied win %Stats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

32.4%

Odds implied win %Odds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

23.7%

Overall valueOverall ValueFor ATS markets only: the value/fair/ripoff score centered around zero.

+8.6

MarginMarginBookmaker margin or ATS margin proxy.

6.6% · Average

Market average oddsMarket AverageThe average available price across comparable bookmaker quotes.

N/A

Relative edge to marketMarket EdgeHow the selected price compares with the current market range.

N/A

Collected Sun, 31 May, 9:38 pm UTC

Stats Breakdown

The same stat breakdown shown on the match page, focused on this market type. Metric definitions

H2H stats breakdown

Quick interpretation first, then recent results, then the category metrics underneath.

Team

Mini summary

Essendon Bombers

Best priceOddsThe quoted decimal price for the selection.

TAB|5.00

Stats impliedStats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

32.4%

Odds impliedOdds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

19.1%

Avg value scoreOverall ValueFor ATS markets only: the value/fair/ripoff score centered around zero.

+10.8 pts

Stats ratingStats RatingA 0-100 rating for the underlying stats profile.

35.8

Availability mult

0.55 (0.94 rel)

Wins last 5Wins last 5Team wins across the most recent five available results.

0/5

Wins last 10Wins last 10Team wins across the most recent ten available results.

1/10

Essendon Bombers rate behind Carlton Blues on the current stats profile.

6/9 stat categories favour Carlton Blues.

Last 5 games

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
31 May	West Coast Eagles	L	55-85
22 May	Richmond Tigers	L	56-74
17 May	Fremantle Dockers	L	61-104
9 May	Greater Western Sydney Giants	L	89-103
2 May	Brisbane Lions	L	79-143

Recent Form

Essendon Bombers score 5.8 | weight 0.24 | weighted contribution 1.4

Expand metrics

Metric	Essendon Bombers	Carlton Blues	Direction	Edge note
Recent performance scoreRecent performanceA recency-weighted result score across the latest five team games.	0	80	Higher is better	-1.0
Recent Win Rate	0	0.6	Higher is better	-1.0
Recent Avg Margin	-33.8	0	Higher is better	-1.0
Recent Avg Score For	68	82.4	Higher is better	-0.1
Recent Avg Score Against	101.8	82.4	Lower is better	-0.1
Recent Avg Scoring Shots For	21	25.4	Higher is better	-0.1
Recent Avg Scoring Shots Against	25.8	23.4	Lower is better	-0.0
Recent Inside 50 Diff	-2.6	4.2	Higher is better	-1.0
Recent Clearance Diff	4	-1.4	Higher is better	+1.0
Recent Contested Possession Diff	-1	11.6	Higher is better	-1.0
Recent Turnover Diff	2.4	-3.6	Lower is better	-1.0

Season Strength

Essendon Bombers score 10.3 | weight 0.12 | weighted contribution 1.2

Expand metrics

Metric	Essendon Bombers	Carlton Blues	Direction	Edge note
Season Win Rate	0.083	0.333	Higher is better	-0.6
Season Avg Margin	-31.75	-11.583	Higher is better	-0.5
Season Avg Score For	75.833	81.417	Higher is better	-0.0
Season Avg Score Against	107.583	93	Lower is better	-0.1
Season Avg Scoring Shot Diff	-7.167	-1.167	Higher is better	-0.7
Season Avg Inside 50 Diff	-8.75	-3.417	Higher is better	-0.4
Season Avg Clearance Diff	-1.5	0	Higher is better	-1.0
Season Avg Contested Possession Diff	-4.333	7.667	Higher is better	-1.0

Opponent Weakness

Essendon Bombers score 71.9 | weight 0.07 | weighted contribution 5.0

Expand metrics

Metric	Essendon Bombers	Carlton Blues	Direction	Edge note
Opponent Loss Rate	0.917	0.667	Higher is better	+0.2
Opponent Avg Margin Against	31.75	11.583	Higher is better	+0.5
Opponent Avg Score Against	107.583	93	Higher is better	+0.1
Opponent Avg Goals Against	15.833	13.583	Higher is better	+0.1
Opponent Avg Scoring Shots Against	28.417	25.083	Higher is better	+0.1
Opponent Avg Inside 50S Against	55.417	54.417	Higher is better	+0.0
Opponent Avg Marks Inside 50 Against	16.25	13.417	Higher is better	+0.1
Opponent Avg Clearance Diff Allowed	1.5	0	Higher is better	+1.0
Opponent Avg Contested Possession Diff Allowed	4.333	-7.667	Higher is better	+1.0
Opponent Avg Turnovers	63.833	63.75	Higher is better	+0.0
Opponent Avg Clangers	53.833	57.833	Higher is better	-0.0
Opponent Avg Contest Def Loss Percentage	N/A	N/A	Higher is better	N/A
Opponent Avg Pressure Acts	N/A	N/A	Lower is better	N/A
Opponent Avg Intercepts	61.5	65.333	Lower is better	+0.0

Defence & Pressure

Essendon Bombers score 43.6 | weight 0.09 | weighted contribution 3.9

Expand metrics

Metric	Essendon Bombers	Carlton Blues	Direction	Edge note
Avg Score Against	107.583	93	Lower is better	-0.1
Avg Goals Against	15.833	13.583	Lower is better	-0.1
Avg Scoring Shots Against	28.417	25.083	Lower is better	-0.1
Avg Inside 50S Against	55.417	54.417	Lower is better	-0.0
Avg Marks Inside 50 Against	16.25	13.417	Lower is better	-0.1
Avg Tackles	50.333	54.667	Higher is better	-0.0
Avg Tackles Inside 50	9.583	10.5	Higher is better	-0.0
Avg Pressure Acts	N/A	N/A	Higher is better	N/A
Avg Def Half Pressure Acts	N/A	N/A	Higher is better	N/A
Avg Intercepts	61.5	65.333	Higher is better	-0.0
Avg Intercept Marks	N/A	N/A	Higher is better	N/A
Avg Spoils	N/A	N/A	Higher is better	N/A
Avg One Percenters	31.833	45.833	Higher is better	-0.2
Avg Contest Def Losses	N/A	N/A	Lower is better	N/A
Avg Contest Def Loss Percentage	N/A	N/A	Lower is better	N/A

Home / Venue Edge

Essendon Bombers score 56.1 | weight 0.14 | weighted contribution 7.9

Expand metrics

Metric	Essendon Bombers	Carlton Blues	Direction	Edge note
Match role	Home	Away	N/A	N/A
Base home advantage applied to Essendon Bombers	Applied	Not applied	N/A	+0.2
Essendon Bombers current-season home win rate	0.167	N/A	Higher is better	-0.1
Essendon Bombers current-season home point differential	-35.5	N/A	Higher is better	-0.1
Carlton Blues current-season away win rate	N/A	0.167	Higher is better	+0.0
Carlton Blues current-season away point differential	N/A	-15.333	Higher is better	+0.0
Essendon Bombers current-season venue win rate at MCG	0	N/A	Higher is better	-0.0
Essendon Bombers current-season venue point differential at MCG	-50	N/A	Higher is better	-0.0
Carlton Blues current-season venue win rate at MCG	N/A	0.5	Higher is better	0.0
Carlton Blues current-season venue point differential at MCG	N/A	-5	Higher is better	+0.0
Essendon Bombers home sample size	6	N/A	N/A	N/A
Carlton Blues away sample size	N/A	6	N/A	N/A
Venue sample size	4	4	N/A	N/A

Contest, Clearance & Ruck

Essendon Bombers score 45.9 | weight 0.09 | weighted contribution 4.1

Expand metrics

Metric	Essendon Bombers	Carlton Blues	Direction	Edge note
Avg Contested Possessions	119.333	132.667	Higher is better	-0.1
Avg Contested Possession Rate	33.847	36.366	Higher is better	-0.0
Avg Ground Ball Gets	N/A	N/A	Higher is better	N/A
Avg Clearances	31.833	34.583	Higher is better	-0.0
Avg Centre Clearances	12.667	11.917	Higher is better	+0.0
Avg Stoppage Clearances	19.167	22.667	Higher is better	-0.1
Avg Hitouts To Advantage	N/A	N/A	Higher is better	N/A
Avg Hitout To Advantage Rate	N/A	N/A	Higher is better	N/A
Avg Hitout Win Percentage	N/A	N/A	Higher is better	N/A
Avg Contested Marks	7.833	9.167	Higher is better	-0.1

Attack

Essendon Bombers score 48.2 | weight 0.13 | weighted contribution 6.3

Expand metrics

Metric	Essendon Bombers	Carlton Blues	Direction	Edge note
Avg Score For	75.833	81.417	Higher is better	-0.0
Avg Goals For	10.917	11.5	Higher is better	-0.0
Avg Scoring Shots For	21.25	23.917	Higher is better	-0.1
Avg Shots At Goal	21.917	26.75	Higher is better	-0.1
Avg Inside 50S	46.667	51	Higher is better	-0.0
Avg Marks Inside 50	10.417	10.667	Higher is better	-0.0
Avg Score Involvements	N/A	N/A	Higher is better	N/A
Avg Score Launches	N/A	N/A	Higher is better	N/A
Avg Goal Assists	8.083	7.167	Higher is better	+0.1
Avg Goal Accuracy	49.8	43.15	Higher is better	+0.1
Avg Shot Efficiency	47.167	52.892	Higher is better	-0.1
Avg Goal Efficiency	23.475	22.7	Higher is better	+0.0

Discipline & Ball Security

Essendon Bombers score 51.3 | weight 0.03 | weighted contribution 1.5

Expand metrics

Metric	Essendon Bombers	Carlton Blues	Direction	Edge note
Avg Turnovers	63.833	63.75	Lower is better	-0.0
Avg Clangers	53.833	57.833	Lower is better	+0.0
Avg Frees Against	18.833	19.917	Lower is better	+0.0
Avg Frees For	18.917	18.75	Higher is better	+0.0
Avg Disposal Efficiency	75.142	72.975	Higher is better	+0.0
Avg Effective Disposals	273.067	274.383	Higher is better	-0.0

Territory & Ball Movement

Essendon Bombers score 49.4 | weight 0.09 | weighted contribution 4.4

Expand metrics

Metric	Essendon Bombers	Carlton Blues	Direction	Edge note
Avg Metres Gained	N/A	N/A	Higher is better	N/A
Avg Inside 50S	46.667	51	Higher is better	-0.0
Avg Effective Disposals	273.067	274.383	Higher is better	-0.0
Avg Disposal Efficiency	75.142	72.975	Higher is better	+0.0
Avg Effective Kicks	N/A	N/A	Higher is better	N/A
Avg Kick Efficiency	N/A	N/A	Higher is better	N/A
Avg Marks	91.833	93.75	Higher is better	-0.0
Avg Uncontested Possessions	233.667	233	Higher is better	+0.0
Avg Bounces	7.25	6.833	Higher is better	+0.0