Market detail

H2H market

Ripoff

Melbourne StormvsNewcastle Knights

Melbourne Storm at Unibet.

Odds 1.58Fair Odds 1.61Margin 5.8% · GoodFri, 5 June, 8:00 amOdds updated Sun, 31 May, 9:52 pm UTCMatch page

Stats implied win %Stats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

47.0%

Odds implied win %Odds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

59.8%

At Unibet

Footylab predicted edgeFootylab predicted edgeHow much Footylab thinks the H2H side may be mispriced, in percentage points.

-12.8pp

Probability band · Soft favourite 55-70%

MarginMarginBookmaker margin or ATS margin proxy.

5.8% · Good

Market average oddsMarket AverageThe average available price across comparable bookmaker quotes.

1.61

Relative edge to marketMarket EdgeHow the selected price compares with the current market range.

-1.9%

Summary

Melbourne Storm grades as strong ripoff: the bookmaker expectation is stronger than the stats expectation versus Newcastle Knights, and this bookmaker is pricing above the current market average.

Bookmaker comparison

Compare the same six market metrics across each bookmaker, with the selected bookmaker highlighted.

Betr

Odds updated Sun, 31 May, 9:52 pm UTC

Melbourne Storm

Best price

1.63

Stats implied win %Stats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

47.0%

Odds implied win %Odds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

58.0%

Overall valueOverall ValueFor ATS markets only: the value/fair/ripoff score centered around zero.

-11.0

MarginMarginBookmaker margin or ATS margin proxy.

5.8% · Good

Market average oddsMarket AverageThe average available price across comparable bookmaker quotes.

1.61

Relative edge to marketMarket EdgeHow the selected price compares with the current market range.

+2.0%

Collected Sun, 31 May, 9:53 pm UTC

TAB

Odds updated Sun, 31 May, 9:52 pm UTC

Melbourne Storm

1.62

Stats implied win %Stats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

47.0%

Odds implied win %Odds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

58.1%

Overall valueOverall ValueFor ATS markets only: the value/fair/ripoff score centered around zero.

-11.2

MarginMarginBookmaker margin or ATS margin proxy.

6.2% · Average

Market average oddsMarket AverageThe average available price across comparable bookmaker quotes.

1.61

Relative edge to marketMarket EdgeHow the selected price compares with the current market range.

+1.2%

Collected Sun, 31 May, 9:53 pm UTC

SportsBet

Odds updated Sun, 31 May, 9:52 pm UTC

Melbourne Storm

1.61

Stats implied win %Stats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

47.0%

Odds implied win %Odds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

59.1%

Overall valueOverall ValueFor ATS markets only: the value/fair/ripoff score centered around zero.

-12.1

MarginMarginBookmaker margin or ATS margin proxy.

5.0% · Good

Market average oddsMarket AverageThe average available price across comparable bookmaker quotes.

1.61

Relative edge to marketMarket EdgeHow the selected price compares with the current market range.

+0.4%

Collected Sun, 31 May, 9:53 pm UTC

Ladbrokes

Odds updated Sun, 31 May, 9:52 pm UTC

Melbourne Storm

1.60

Stats implied win %Stats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

47.0%

Odds implied win %Odds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

59.5%

Overall valueOverall ValueFor ATS markets only: the value/fair/ripoff score centered around zero.

-12.5

MarginMarginBookmaker margin or ATS margin proxy.

5.1% · Good

Market average oddsMarket AverageThe average available price across comparable bookmaker quotes.

1.61

Relative edge to marketMarket EdgeHow the selected price compares with the current market range.

-0.4%

Collected Sun, 31 May, 9:53 pm UTC

Neds

Odds updated Sun, 31 May, 9:52 pm UTC

Melbourne Storm

1.60

Stats implied win %Stats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

47.0%

Odds implied win %Odds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

59.5%

Overall valueOverall ValueFor ATS markets only: the value/fair/ripoff score centered around zero.

-12.5

MarginMarginBookmaker margin or ATS margin proxy.

5.1% · Good

Market average oddsMarket AverageThe average available price across comparable bookmaker quotes.

1.61

Relative edge to marketMarket EdgeHow the selected price compares with the current market range.

-0.4%

Collected Sun, 31 May, 9:53 pm UTC

PointsBet (AU)

Odds updated Sun, 31 May, 9:52 pm UTC

Melbourne Storm

1.60

Stats implied win %Stats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

47.0%

Odds implied win %Odds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

59.0%

Overall valueOverall ValueFor ATS markets only: the value/fair/ripoff score centered around zero.

-12.0

MarginMarginBookmaker margin or ATS margin proxy.

6.0% · Good

Market average oddsMarket AverageThe average available price across comparable bookmaker quotes.

1.61

Relative edge to marketMarket EdgeHow the selected price compares with the current market range.

-0.4%

Collected Sun, 31 May, 9:53 pm UTC

Unibet

Odds updated Sun, 31 May, 9:52 pm UTC

Melbourne Storm

Selected bookmaker

1.58

Stats implied win %Stats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

47.0%

Odds implied win %Odds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

59.8%

Overall valueOverall ValueFor ATS markets only: the value/fair/ripoff score centered around zero.

-12.8

MarginMarginBookmaker margin or ATS margin proxy.

5.8% · Good

Market average oddsMarket AverageThe average available price across comparable bookmaker quotes.

1.61

Relative edge to marketMarket EdgeHow the selected price compares with the current market range.

-1.9%

Collected Sun, 31 May, 9:53 pm UTC

Stats Breakdown

The same stat breakdown shown on the match page, focused on this market type. Metric definitions

H2H stats breakdown

Quick interpretation first, then recent results, then the category metrics underneath.

Team

Mini summary

Melbourne Storm

Best priceOddsThe quoted decimal price for the selection.

Betr|1.63

Stats impliedStats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

47.0%

Odds impliedOdds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

58.0%

Avg value scoreOverall ValueFor ATS markets only: the value/fair/ripoff score centered around zero.

-12.0 pts

Stats ratingStats RatingA 0-100 rating for the underlying stats profile.

53.2

Availability mult

0.62 (0.87 rel)

Wins last 5Wins last 5Team wins across the most recent five available results.

3/5

Wins last 10Wins last 10Team wins across the most recent ten available results.

3/10

Melbourne Storm rate behind Newcastle Knights on the current stats profile.

4/7 stat categories favour Newcastle Knights.

Last 5 games

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
30 May	Sydney Roosters	W	18-4
22 May	Canterbury Bulldogs	L	20-30
16 May	Parramatta Eels	W	34-8
10 May	Wests Tigers	W	44-16
1 May	Dolphins	L	10-28

Season Strength

Melbourne Storm score 43.9 | weight 0.15 | weighted contribution 6.6

Expand metrics

Metric	Melbourne Storm	Newcastle Knights	Direction	Edge note
Win rate	0.385	0.667	Higher is better	-0.4
Average point differential	-0.308	2.833	Higher is better	-0.1
Average points scored	24.154	28.333	Higher is better	-0.1
Average points conceded	24.462	25.5	Lower is better	+0.0
Average tries scored	4.231	5.167	Higher is better	-0.2
Average tries conceded	4.462	4.583	Lower is better	+0.0

Recent Form

Melbourne Storm score 63.1 | weight 0.3 | weighted contribution 18.9

Expand metrics

Metric	Melbourne Storm	Newcastle Knights	Direction	Edge note
Recent performance scoreRecent performanceA recency-weighted result score across the latest five team games.	66.667	93.333	Higher is better	-0.3
Win rate	0.6	0.8	Higher is better	-0.3
Average point differential	8	7.2	Higher is better	+0.0
Average points scored	25.2	32.4	Higher is better	-0.3
Average points conceded	17.2	25.2	Lower is better	+0.3
Average tries scored	4.4	6	Higher is better	-0.3
Average tries conceded	3.2	4.6	Lower is better	+0.3

Home / Venue Edge

Melbourne Storm score 55.0 | weight 0.15 | weighted contribution 8.3

Expand metrics

Metric	Melbourne Storm	Newcastle Knights	Direction	Edge note
Match role	Home	Away	N/A	N/A
Base home advantage applied to Melbourne Storm	Applied	Not applied	N/A	+0.2
Melbourne Storm current-season home win rate	0.5	N/A	Higher is better	-0.0
Melbourne Storm current-season home point differential	3.333	N/A	Higher is better	-0.0
Newcastle Knights current-season away win rate	N/A	0.667	Higher is better	-0.1
Newcastle Knights current-season away point differential	N/A	8.667	Higher is better	-0.1
Melbourne Storm current-season venue win rate at AAMI Park	0.5	N/A	Higher is better	0.0
Melbourne Storm current-season venue point differential at AAMI Park	3.333	N/A	Higher is better	+0.0
Newcastle Knights current-season venue win rate at AAMI Park	N/A	0.5	Higher is better	0.0
Newcastle Knights current-season venue point differential at AAMI Park	N/A	0	Higher is better	0.0
Melbourne Storm home sample size	6	N/A	N/A	N/A
Newcastle Knights away sample size	N/A	6	N/A	N/A
Venue sample size	6	0	N/A	N/A

Defence

Melbourne Storm score 46.4 | weight 0.125 | weighted contribution 5.8

Expand metrics

Metric	Melbourne Storm	Newcastle Knights	Direction	Edge note
Season Loss Rate	0.615	0.333	Lower is better	-0.3
Season Heavy Loss Rate	0.308	0.333	Lower is better	+0.0
Season Avg Point Differential	-0.308	2.833	Higher is better	-1.0
Season Avg Points Against	24.462	25.5	Lower is better	+0.0
Average points conceded	23.867	30.533	Lower is better	+0.1
Average tries conceded	4.4	5.533	Lower is better	+0.1
Avg Losing Margin	16.667	29.429	Lower is better	+0.3
Heavy Loss Rate	0.267	0.467	Lower is better	+0.3
Average line breaks conceded	6.4	6.4	Lower is better	0.0
Average missed tackles	34.2	36.467	Lower is better	+0.0
Average tackle efficiency	87.481	86.697	Higher is better	+0.0

Discipline

Melbourne Storm score 53.2 | weight 0.05 | weighted contribution 2.7

Expand metrics

Metric	Melbourne Storm	Newcastle Knights	Direction	Edge note
Average completion rate	79.467	76.267	Higher is better	+0.0
Average penalties conceded	4.6	4.867	Lower is better	+0.0
Average errors	10.067	11.2	Lower is better	+0.1

Attack

Melbourne Storm score 47.7 | weight 0.125 | weighted contribution 6.0

Expand metrics

Metric	Melbourne Storm	Newcastle Knights	Direction	Edge note
Average points scored	23.867	25.2	Higher is better	-0.0
Average tries scored	4.2	4.6	Higher is better	-0.0
Average line breaks	5.467	5.467	Higher is better	0.0

Opponent Weakness

Melbourne Storm score 50.4 | weight 0.1 | weighted contribution 5.0

Expand metrics

Metric	Melbourne Storm	Newcastle Knights	Direction	Edge note
Opponent Season Loss Rate	0.333	0.615	Higher is better	-0.3
Opponent Season Win Rate	0.667	0.385	Lower is better	-0.3
Opponent Season Point Differential	2.833	-0.308	Lower is better	-1.0
Opponent Loss Rate	0.467	0.6	Higher is better	-0.1
Opponent Win Rate	0.533	0.4	Lower is better	-0.1
Opponent Avg Point Differential	-5.333	0	Lower is better	+1.0
Opponent Avg Points For	25.2	23.867	Lower is better	-0.0
Opponent average points conceded	30.533	23.867	Higher is better	+0.1
Opponent Heavy Loss Rate	0.467	0.267	Higher is better	+0.3
Opponent Avg Losing Margin	29.429	16.667	Higher is better	+0.3
Opponent average tries conceded	5.533	4.4	Higher is better	+0.1
Opponent average line breaks conceded	6.4	6.4	Higher is better	0.0
Opponent average missed tackles	36.467	34.2	Higher is better	+0.0
Opponent average tackle efficiency	86.697	87.481	Lower is better	+0.0
Opponent average completion rate	76.267	79.467	Lower is better	+0.0
Opponent average penalties conceded	4.867	4.6	Higher is better	+0.0
Opponent average errors	11.2	10.067	Higher is better	+0.1