Market detail

H2H market

Ripoff

New Zealand WarriorsvsNorth Queensland Cowboys

New Zealand Warriors at Ladbrokes.

Odds 1.33Fair Odds 1.36Margin 5.0% · GoodSun, 21 June, 4:00 amOdds updated Wed, 17 June, 12:21 pm UTCMatch page

Stats implied win %Stats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

53.1%

Odds implied win %Odds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

71.6%

At Ladbrokes

Footylab predicted edgeFootylab predicted edgeHow much Footylab thinks the H2H side may be mispriced, in percentage points.

-18.5pp

Probability band · Normal favourite 60-75%

MarginMarginBookmaker margin or ATS margin proxy.

5.0% · Good

Market average oddsMarket AverageThe average available price across comparable bookmaker quotes.

1.36

Relative edge to marketMarket EdgeHow the selected price compares with the current market range.

-2.6%

Summary

New Zealand Warriors grades as strong ripoff: the bookmaker expectation is stronger than the stats expectation versus North Queensland Cowboys, and this bookmaker is pricing above the current market average.

Bookmaker comparison

Compare the same six market metrics across each bookmaker, with the selected bookmaker highlighted.

Bet Right

Odds updated Wed, 17 June, 12:21 pm UTC

New Zealand Warriors

Best price

1.38

Stats implied win %Stats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

53.1%

Odds implied win %Odds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

68.8%

Overall valueOverall ValueFor ATS markets only: the value/fair/ripoff score centered around zero.

-15.7

MarginMarginBookmaker margin or ATS margin proxy.

5.3% · Good

Market average oddsMarket AverageThe average available price across comparable bookmaker quotes.

1.36

Relative edge to marketMarket EdgeHow the selected price compares with the current market range.

+2.0%

Collected Wed, 17 June, 12:21 pm UTC

PointsBet (AU)

Odds updated Wed, 17 June, 12:20 pm UTC

New Zealand Warriors

1.38

Stats implied win %Stats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

53.1%

Odds implied win %Odds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

68.5%

Overall valueOverall ValueFor ATS markets only: the value/fair/ripoff score centered around zero.

-15.4

MarginMarginBookmaker margin or ATS margin proxy.

5.8% · Good

Market average oddsMarket AverageThe average available price across comparable bookmaker quotes.

1.36

Relative edge to marketMarket EdgeHow the selected price compares with the current market range.

+2.0%

Collected Wed, 17 June, 12:21 pm UTC

TAB

Odds updated Wed, 17 June, 12:18 pm UTC

New Zealand Warriors

1.38

Stats implied win %Stats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

53.1%

Odds implied win %Odds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

69.2%

Overall valueOverall ValueFor ATS markets only: the value/fair/ripoff score centered around zero.

-16.1

MarginMarginBookmaker margin or ATS margin proxy.

4.7% · Good

Market average oddsMarket AverageThe average available price across comparable bookmaker quotes.

1.36

Relative edge to marketMarket EdgeHow the selected price compares with the current market range.

+2.0%

Collected Wed, 17 June, 12:21 pm UTC

Unibet

Odds updated Wed, 17 June, 12:20 pm UTC

New Zealand Warriors

1.37

Stats implied win %Stats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

53.1%

Odds implied win %Odds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

69.4%

Overall valueOverall ValueFor ATS markets only: the value/fair/ripoff score centered around zero.

-16.3

MarginMarginBookmaker margin or ATS margin proxy.

5.3% · Good

Market average oddsMarket AverageThe average available price across comparable bookmaker quotes.

1.36

Relative edge to marketMarket EdgeHow the selected price compares with the current market range.

+1.1%

Collected Wed, 17 June, 12:21 pm UTC

SportsBet

Odds updated Wed, 17 June, 12:20 pm UTC

New Zealand Warriors

1.36

Stats implied win %Stats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

53.1%

Odds implied win %Odds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

69.9%

Overall valueOverall ValueFor ATS markets only: the value/fair/ripoff score centered around zero.

-16.8

MarginMarginBookmaker margin or ATS margin proxy.

5.2% · Good

Market average oddsMarket AverageThe average available price across comparable bookmaker quotes.

1.36

Relative edge to marketMarket EdgeHow the selected price compares with the current market range.

+0.2%

Collected Wed, 17 June, 12:21 pm UTC

Betr

Odds updated Wed, 17 June, 12:20 pm UTC

New Zealand Warriors

1.35

Stats implied win %Stats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

53.1%

Odds implied win %Odds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

70.3%

Overall valueOverall ValueFor ATS markets only: the value/fair/ripoff score centered around zero.

-17.2

MarginMarginBookmaker margin or ATS margin proxy.

5.3% · Good

Market average oddsMarket AverageThe average available price across comparable bookmaker quotes.

1.36

Relative edge to marketMarket EdgeHow the selected price compares with the current market range.

-0.7%

Collected Wed, 17 June, 12:21 pm UTC

Dabble AU

Odds updated Wed, 17 June, 12:20 pm UTC

New Zealand Warriors

1.35

Stats implied win %Stats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

53.1%

Odds implied win %Odds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

70.7%

Overall valueOverall ValueFor ATS markets only: the value/fair/ripoff score centered around zero.

-17.6

MarginMarginBookmaker margin or ATS margin proxy.

4.8% · Good

Market average oddsMarket AverageThe average available price across comparable bookmaker quotes.

1.36

Relative edge to marketMarket EdgeHow the selected price compares with the current market range.

-0.7%

Collected Wed, 17 June, 12:21 pm UTC

Ladbrokes

Odds updated Wed, 17 June, 12:21 pm UTC

New Zealand Warriors

Selected bookmaker

1.33

Stats implied win %Stats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

53.1%

Odds implied win %Odds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

71.6%

Overall valueOverall ValueFor ATS markets only: the value/fair/ripoff score centered around zero.

-18.5

MarginMarginBookmaker margin or ATS margin proxy.

5.0% · Good

Market average oddsMarket AverageThe average available price across comparable bookmaker quotes.

1.36

Relative edge to marketMarket EdgeHow the selected price compares with the current market range.

-2.6%

Collected Wed, 17 June, 12:21 pm UTC

Neds

Odds updated Wed, 17 June, 12:21 pm UTC

New Zealand Warriors

1.33

Stats implied win %Stats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

53.1%

Odds implied win %Odds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

71.6%

Overall valueOverall ValueFor ATS markets only: the value/fair/ripoff score centered around zero.

-18.5

MarginMarginBookmaker margin or ATS margin proxy.

5.0% · Good

Market average oddsMarket AverageThe average available price across comparable bookmaker quotes.

1.36

Relative edge to marketMarket EdgeHow the selected price compares with the current market range.

-2.6%

Collected Wed, 17 June, 12:21 pm UTC

Stats Breakdown

The same stat breakdown shown on the match page, focused on this market type. Metric definitions

H2H stats breakdown

Quick interpretation first, then recent results, then the category metrics underneath.

Team

Mini summary

New Zealand Warriors

Best priceOddsThe quoted decimal price for the selection.

PointsBet (AU)|1.38

Stats impliedStats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

53.1%

Odds impliedOdds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

68.5%

Avg value scoreOverall ValueFor ATS markets only: the value/fair/ripoff score centered around zero.

-16.9 pts

Stats ratingStats RatingA 0-100 rating for the underlying stats profile.

61.6

Availability mult

0.55 (0.73 rel)

Wins last 5Wins last 5Team wins across the most recent five available results.

3/5

Wins last 10Wins last 10Team wins across the most recent ten available results.

6/10

New Zealand Warriors are favoured by the current stats profile.

7/7 stat categories favour New Zealand Warriors.

Last 5 games

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
13 June	Cronulla Sutherland Sharks	L	8-10
31 May	Penrith Panthers	L	18-20
23 May	St George Illawarra Dragons	W	30-12
17 May	Brisbane Broncos	W	42-12
2 May	Parramatta Eels	W	36-14

Defence

New Zealand Warriors score 72.0 | weight 0.125 | weighted contribution 9.0

Expand metrics

Metric	New Zealand Warriors	North Queensland Cowboys	Direction	Edge note
Season Loss Rate	0.308	0.429	Lower is better	+0.2
Season Heavy Loss Rate	0.154	0.286	Lower is better	+0.3
Season Avg Point Differential	11.692	-0.929	Higher is better	+1.0
Season Avg Points Against	17.231	25.429	Lower is better	+0.2
Average points conceded	18.333	26.267	Lower is better	+0.2
Average tries conceded	3.2	4.733	Lower is better	+0.2
Avg Losing Margin	8.833	17.286	Lower is better	+0.3
Heavy Loss Rate	0.2	0.267	Lower is better	+0.1
Average line breaks conceded	4.333	6.067	Lower is better	+0.2
Average missed tackles	34	37.267	Lower is better	+0.0
Average tackle efficiency	87.151	86.751	Higher is better	+0.0

Opponent Weakness

New Zealand Warriors score 69.5 | weight 0.1 | weighted contribution 6.9

Expand metrics

Metric	New Zealand Warriors	North Queensland Cowboys	Direction	Edge note
Opponent Season Loss Rate	0.429	0.308	Higher is better	+0.2
Opponent Season Win Rate	0.571	0.692	Lower is better	+0.1
Opponent Season Point Differential	-0.929	11.692	Lower is better	+1.0
Opponent Loss Rate	0.467	0.4	Higher is better	+0.1
Opponent Win Rate	0.533	0.6	Lower is better	+0.1
Opponent Avg Point Differential	-1.4	9	Lower is better	+1.0
Opponent Avg Points For	24.867	27.333	Lower is better	+0.0
Opponent average points conceded	26.267	18.333	Higher is better	+0.2
Opponent Heavy Loss Rate	0.267	0.2	Higher is better	+0.1
Opponent Avg Losing Margin	17.286	8.833	Higher is better	+0.3
Opponent average tries conceded	4.733	3.2	Higher is better	+0.2
Opponent average line breaks conceded	6.067	4.333	Higher is better	+0.2
Opponent average missed tackles	37.267	34	Higher is better	+0.0
Opponent average tackle efficiency	86.751	87.151	Lower is better	+0.0
Opponent average completion rate	76.667	81.667	Lower is better	+0.0
Opponent average penalties conceded	5.2	4.333	Higher is better	+0.1
Opponent average errors	11.6	10.867	Higher is better	+0.0

Home / Venue Edge

New Zealand Warriors score 61.9 | weight 0.15 | weighted contribution 9.3

Expand metrics

Metric	New Zealand Warriors	North Queensland Cowboys	Direction	Edge note
Match role	Home	Away	N/A	N/A
Base home advantage applied to New Zealand Warriors	Applied	Not applied	N/A	+0.2
New Zealand Warriors current-season home win rate	0.714	N/A	Higher is better	+0.0
New Zealand Warriors current-season home point differential	11.143	N/A	Higher is better	+0.0
North Queensland Cowboys current-season away win rate	N/A	0.571	Higher is better	-0.0
North Queensland Cowboys current-season away point differential	N/A	0.857	Higher is better	-0.0
New Zealand Warriors current-season venue win rate at One NZ Stadium	0.5	N/A	Higher is better	0.0
New Zealand Warriors current-season venue point differential at One NZ Stadium	0	N/A	Higher is better	0.0
North Queensland Cowboys current-season venue win rate at One NZ Stadium	N/A	0.5	Higher is better	0.0
North Queensland Cowboys current-season venue point differential at One NZ Stadium	N/A	0	Higher is better	0.0
New Zealand Warriors home sample size	7	N/A	N/A	N/A
North Queensland Cowboys away sample size	N/A	7	N/A	N/A
Venue sample size	0	0	N/A	N/A

Recent Form

New Zealand Warriors score 56.3 | weight 0.3 | weighted contribution 16.9

Expand metrics

Metric	New Zealand Warriors	North Queensland Cowboys	Direction	Edge note
Recent performance scoreRecent performanceA recency-weighted result score across the latest five team games.	40	33.333	Higher is better	+0.1
Win rate	0.6	0.4	Higher is better	+0.3
Average point differential	13.2	-5	Higher is better	+0.6
Average points scored	26.8	20.8	Higher is better	+0.2
Average points conceded	13.6	25.8	Lower is better	+0.4
Average tries scored	4.6	3.6	Higher is better	+0.2
Average tries conceded	2.4	4.8	Lower is better	+0.5

Season Strength

New Zealand Warriors score 69.1 | weight 0.15 | weighted contribution 10.4

Expand metrics

Metric	New Zealand Warriors	North Queensland Cowboys	Direction	Edge note
Win rate	0.692	0.571	Higher is better	+0.2
Average point differential	11.692	-0.929	Higher is better	+0.4
Average points scored	28.923	24.5	Higher is better	+0.2
Average points conceded	17.231	25.429	Lower is better	+0.3
Average tries scored	5	4.429	Higher is better	+0.1
Average tries conceded	3	4.571	Lower is better	+0.3

Discipline

New Zealand Warriors score 54.9 | weight 0.05 | weighted contribution 2.7

Expand metrics

Metric	New Zealand Warriors	North Queensland Cowboys	Direction	Edge note
Average completion rate	81.667	76.667	Higher is better	+0.0
Average penalties conceded	4.333	5.2	Lower is better	+0.1
Average errors	10.867	11.6	Lower is better	+0.0

Attack

New Zealand Warriors score 51.1 | weight 0.125 | weighted contribution 6.4

Expand metrics

Metric	New Zealand Warriors	North Queensland Cowboys	Direction	Edge note
Average points scored	27.333	24.867	Higher is better	+0.0
Average tries scored	4.733	4.467	Higher is better	+0.0
Average line breaks	5.4	5.867	Higher is better	-0.0