Market detail

H2H market

Ripoff

DolphinsvsNew Zealand Warriors

New Zealand Warriors at Betr.

Odds 2.25Fair Odds 2.26Margin 5.8% · GoodSat, 27 June, 5:00 amOdds updated Wed, 17 June, 1:10 pm UTCMatch page

Stats implied win %Stats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

17.3%

Odds implied win %Odds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

42.0%

At Betr

Footylab predicted edgeFootylab predicted edgeHow much Footylab thinks the H2H side may be mispriced, in percentage points.

-24.8pp

Probability band · Heavy favourite 85-100%

MarginMarginBookmaker margin or ATS margin proxy.

5.8% · Good

Market average oddsMarket AverageThe average available price across comparable bookmaker quotes.

2.25

Relative edge to marketMarket EdgeHow the selected price compares with the current market range.

-0.3%

Summary

New Zealand Warriors grades as strong ripoff: the bookmaker expectation is stronger than the stats expectation versus Dolphins, and this bookmaker is pricing above the current market average.

Bookmaker comparison

Compare the same six market metrics across each bookmaker, with the selected bookmaker highlighted.

SportsBet

Odds updated Wed, 17 June, 1:10 pm UTC

New Zealand Warriors

Best price

2.26

Stats implied win %Stats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

17.3%

Odds implied win %Odds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

42.1%

Overall valueOverall ValueFor ATS markets only: the value/fair/ripoff score centered around zero.

-24.8

MarginMarginBookmaker margin or ATS margin proxy.

5.2% · Good

Market average oddsMarket AverageThe average available price across comparable bookmaker quotes.

2.25

Relative edge to marketMarket EdgeHow the selected price compares with the current market range.

+0.3%

Collected Wed, 17 June, 1:11 pm UTC

Betr

Odds updated Wed, 17 June, 1:10 pm UTC

New Zealand Warriors

Selected bookmaker

2.25

Stats implied win %Stats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

17.3%

Odds implied win %Odds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

42.0%

Overall valueOverall ValueFor ATS markets only: the value/fair/ripoff score centered around zero.

-24.8

MarginMarginBookmaker margin or ATS margin proxy.

5.8% · Good

Market average oddsMarket AverageThe average available price across comparable bookmaker quotes.

2.25

Relative edge to marketMarket EdgeHow the selected price compares with the current market range.

-0.3%

Collected Wed, 17 June, 1:11 pm UTC

Stats Breakdown

The same stat breakdown shown on the match page, focused on this market type. Metric definitions

H2H stats breakdown

Quick interpretation first, then recent results, then the category metrics underneath.

Team

Mini summary

New Zealand Warriors

Best priceOddsThe quoted decimal price for the selection.

SportsBet|2.26

Stats impliedStats impliedFootylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.

17.3%

Odds impliedOdds impliedThe chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.

42.0%

Avg value scoreOverall ValueFor ATS markets only: the value/fair/ripoff score centered around zero.

-24.8 pts

Stats ratingStats RatingA 0-100 rating for the underlying stats profile.

53.2

Availability mult

0.55 (0.71 rel)

Wins last 5Wins last 5Team wins across the most recent five available results.

3/5

Wins last 10Wins last 10Team wins across the most recent ten available results.

6/10

New Zealand Warriors are favoured by the current stats profile.

4/7 stat categories favour New Zealand Warriors.

Last 5 games

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
13 June	Cronulla Sutherland Sharks	L	8-10
31 May	Penrith Panthers	L	18-20
23 May	St George Illawarra Dragons	W	30-12
17 May	Brisbane Broncos	W	42-12
2 May	Parramatta Eels	W	36-14

Recent Form

New Zealand Warriors score 56.3 | weight 0.3 | weighted contribution 16.9

Expand metrics

Metric	New Zealand Warriors	Dolphins	Direction	Edge note
Recent performance scoreRecent performanceA recency-weighted result score across the latest five team games.	40	100	Higher is better	-0.6
Win rate	0.6	1	Higher is better	-0.5
Average point differential	13.2	25.2	Higher is better	-0.4
Average points scored	26.8	38.8	Higher is better	-0.4
Average points conceded	13.6	13.6	Lower is better	0.0
Average tries scored	4.6	6.6	Higher is better	-0.4
Average tries conceded	2.4	2.6	Lower is better	+0.0

Home / Venue Edge

New Zealand Warriors score 41.0 | weight 0.15 | weighted contribution 6.1

Expand metrics

Metric	New Zealand Warriors	Dolphins	Direction	Edge note
Match role	Away	Home	N/A	N/A
Base home advantage applied to Dolphins	Not applied	Applied	N/A	-0.2
Dolphins current-season home win rate	N/A	0.571	Higher is better	+0.0
Dolphins current-season home point differential	N/A	6.714	Higher is better	-0.0
New Zealand Warriors current-season away win rate	0.667	N/A	Higher is better	+0.1
New Zealand Warriors current-season away point differential	12.333	N/A	Higher is better	+0.1
Dolphins current-season venue win rate at Suncorp Stadium	N/A	0.714	Higher is better	-0.0
Dolphins current-season venue point differential at Suncorp Stadium	N/A	12.857	Higher is better	-0.0
New Zealand Warriors current-season venue win rate at Suncorp Stadium	1	N/A	Higher is better	+0.0
New Zealand Warriors current-season venue point differential at Suncorp Stadium	30	N/A	Higher is better	+0.0
Dolphins home sample size	N/A	7	N/A	N/A
New Zealand Warriors away sample size	6	N/A	N/A	N/A
Venue sample size	1	7	N/A	N/A

Attack

New Zealand Warriors score 42.6 | weight 0.125 | weighted contribution 5.3

Expand metrics

Metric	New Zealand Warriors	Dolphins	Direction	Edge note
Average points scored	27.333	31.733	Higher is better	-0.1
Average tries scored	4.733	5.4	Higher is better	-0.1
Average line breaks	5.4	6.533	Higher is better	-0.1

Discipline

New Zealand Warriors score 54.0 | weight 0.05 | weighted contribution 2.7

Expand metrics

Metric	New Zealand Warriors	Dolphins	Direction	Edge note
Average completion rate	81.667	77.333	Higher is better	+0.0
Average penalties conceded	4.333	5	Lower is better	+0.1
Average errors	10.867	11.467	Lower is better	+0.0

Defence

New Zealand Warriors score 53.5 | weight 0.125 | weighted contribution 6.7

Expand metrics

Metric	New Zealand Warriors	Dolphins	Direction	Edge note
Season Loss Rate	0.308	0.385	Lower is better	+0.1
Season Heavy Loss Rate	0.154	0.154	Lower is better	0.0
Season Avg Point Differential	11.692	8.846	Higher is better	+0.1
Season Avg Points Against	17.231	20.231	Lower is better	+0.1
Average points conceded	18.333	21.133	Lower is better	+0.1
Average tries conceded	3.2	3.8	Lower is better	+0.1
Avg Losing Margin	8.833	12.2	Lower is better	+0.2
Heavy Loss Rate	0.2	0.133	Lower is better	-0.2
Average line breaks conceded	4.333	4.667	Lower is better	+0.0
Average missed tackles	34	29.933	Lower is better	-0.1
Average tackle efficiency	87.151	89.131	Higher is better	-0.0

Season Strength

New Zealand Warriors score 69.1 | weight 0.15 | weighted contribution 10.4

Expand metrics

Metric	New Zealand Warriors	Dolphins	Direction	Edge note
Win rate	0.692	0.615	Higher is better	+0.1
Average point differential	11.692	8.846	Higher is better	+0.1
Average points scored	28.923	29.077	Higher is better	-0.0
Average points conceded	17.231	20.231	Lower is better	+0.1
Average tries scored	5	4.923	Higher is better	+0.0
Average tries conceded	3	3.692	Lower is better	+0.1

Opponent Weakness

New Zealand Warriors score 51.2 | weight 0.1 | weighted contribution 5.1

Expand metrics

Metric	New Zealand Warriors	Dolphins	Direction	Edge note
Opponent Season Loss Rate	0.385	0.308	Higher is better	+0.1
Opponent Season Win Rate	0.615	0.692	Lower is better	+0.1
Opponent Season Point Differential	8.846	11.692	Lower is better	+0.1
Opponent Loss Rate	0.333	0.4	Higher is better	-0.1
Opponent Win Rate	0.667	0.6	Lower is better	-0.1
Opponent Avg Point Differential	10.6	9	Lower is better	-0.1
Opponent Avg Points For	31.733	27.333	Lower is better	-0.1
Opponent average points conceded	21.133	18.333	Higher is better	+0.1
Opponent Heavy Loss Rate	0.133	0.2	Higher is better	-0.2
Opponent Avg Losing Margin	12.2	8.833	Higher is better	+0.2
Opponent average tries conceded	3.8	3.2	Higher is better	+0.1
Opponent average line breaks conceded	4.667	4.333	Higher is better	+0.0
Opponent average missed tackles	29.933	34	Higher is better	-0.1
Opponent average tackle efficiency	89.131	87.151	Lower is better	-0.0
Opponent average completion rate	77.333	81.667	Lower is better	+0.0
Opponent average penalties conceded	5	4.333	Higher is better	+0.1
Opponent average errors	11.467	10.867	Higher is better	+0.0