Methodology
H2H Value Score Calculation
This page explains the current H2H value score in plain English. It is structured so Footylab can later upgrade it into an interactive calculator.
Step 1
Build each team's weighted stats score
Step 2
Convert the two scores into a stats-implied chance split
Step 3
Compare that split with bookmaker expectation
1. Weighted stats score
Each team gets a score from the H2H stat categories shown on the match page.
Every category has a weight, and Footylab takes the weighted average of the category scores that are available for that match.
That means missing categories do not break the page. The score is simply built from the categories that are present.
2. Stats-implied chance
Once both teams have a weighted stats score, Footylab compares them inside the same match.
The selected team's score is divided by the total of both team scores to create a stats-implied chance.
This keeps the comparison transparent: the question becomes how much of the match the stats are assigning to each side.
3. Market-implied chance
Footylab then estimates the market's view from the bookmaker odds board.
For H2H, the implied probabilities from the two sides are normalised into a market chance split.
This creates an apples-to-apples comparison between the stats view and the bookmaker view.
4. Overall value score
The H2H overall value score is the gap between the stats-implied chance and the market-implied chance.
If the stats share is higher than the market share, the score moves positive and the offer looks more like value.
If the stats share is lower than the market share, the score moves negative and the offer looks more like a ripoff.
Verdict bands
Footylab currently uses a band around zero for fair offers. The further the score moves positive, the stronger the value call. The further it moves negative, the stronger the ripoff call.