NRL Round 16 Tips & Predictions 2026: Anytime Try Scorer Value Picks & Odds

The case is pretty straightforward: a prop who rates well on base scoring and opportunity, plus a matchup that isn’t screaming “no tries through the middle”. You’re not buying highlight-reel footwork here; you’re buying repeatable NRL try mechanics: short-range carries, quick rucks, and being the bloke who gets the last pass when the line compresses.

At 12.00, you’re being paid like this lands once every 12 games. Footylab’s number says it’s closer to once every four to five. That doesn’t mean it happens this week, but it does mean the price is doing you a favour.

The big thing with longshot forwards is role certainty. Team lists naming him to start reduces the “is he actually getting the minutes?” worry that can kill an ATS bet before it starts.

Source: NRL 2026, round 16, official team lists, injuries, updates, Fantasy

Five-eighth tries are usually about support and timing rather than brute force. The supporting numbers here lean into that: strong position scoring profile, good base rate, and enough explosiveness to turn a half-chance into points. If the Cowboys are generating line breaks or second-phase looks, this is the type who benefits.

9.00 implies you need a lot to go right. Footylab’s fair price is closer to the mid-7s, and the gap is big enough to justify the swing even with the natural volatility of playmaker try scoring.

Second-row tries are often system tries: shape to an edge, a decoy holds the centre, and the back-rower hits the hole. The supporting profile stacks up across team attack environment, position scoring, recent form, and opponent weakness. In other words, this isn’t purely “random forward try” territory.

7.00 is basically saying he scores once every seven. Footylab’s fair price is closer to 6.40, and the bigger point is the probability gap: the market is leaving a lot of room for him to beat the price if Cronulla get any sustained red-zone time.

The try is usually born from fatigue: a quick play-the-ball, a marker who’s late, and a middle forward who’s fresh enough to punch through. The model isn’t leaning on “hot form” here; it’s more about base rate and a matchup that doesn’t shut the door through the ruck.

16.00 is a proper outsider price. Footylab’s fair price is closer to 13.7, and the gap says you’re being overpaid for the chance he jaggs one in a short, high-impact stint.

This is the classic “inject pace” angle. The base scoring and recent form indicators are strong enough to say he’s not just there to tackle; he’s there to threaten around the ruck. If the Dragons get any momentum, a scoot from close range is the cleanest route.

10.00 says he scores once every ten. Footylab’s fair price is closer to 7.60. You don’t need him to be likely; you need the price to be wrong, and the gap here says it is.

Yes, the base rate and explosiveness are elite, and fullbacks can pop up anywhere. The issue isn’t “can he score?” It’s that the market is treating it like a near coin-flip in a game where Canterbury can absolutely turn it into a grind and limit clean looks.

At around 2.10, there’s not much margin for error. You need him to be scoring closer to one in two to justify it, and Footylab’s view is closer to one in three. That’s a big difference when you’re taking a short quote.

The return from a hamstring is also part of the pricing story: markets love a big-name comeback. Footylab still rates him highly, just not at “must score” levels.

Source: NRL 2026, Injuries, suspension, return dates, casualty ward and key information for the 2026 NRL Telstra Premiership season

Winger tries are heavily supply-driven. Even with strong base rate, opportunity and recent form, you still need the right edge to get clean ball and finish. Against a quality opponent, those chances can dry up quickly or get spread around.

2.00 is basically “he scores or you lose”. Footylab’s fair price is closer to 1.93, but the key is the probability gap: the market’s asking you to accept a one-in-two outcome when the numbers see it closer to one-in-three.

Centres can score in bunches when their side is rolling, and his explosiveness/base rate combo says he’s always a threat. The problem is that try distribution isn’t a loyalty program. If Manly’s points come via the other edge, a kick try, or a fullback sweep, you can be “right” about Manly and still lose the ATS.

2.40 is a confident number for a centre. Footylab’s fair price is closer to 2.25, and the market is effectively asking you to overpay for a player whose scoring is still dependent on where the ball goes.

Locks who score tend to do it off effort: pushing through the middle, backing up line breaks, or being the extra body on a quick shift back inside. The supporting profile leans more on recent form and role/position scoring than on a dominant team attack environment, which fits the Tigers: you’re betting on the player’s involvement, not a guaranteed points avalanche.

10.00 implies he scores once every ten. Footylab’s fair price is closer to 6.96. If the Tigers get into a scrap near the line, this is exactly the type who can fall over from close range.

For a five-eighth, the try comes from two places: backing up through the middle when the line breaks, or taking on a lazy A-defender close to the stripe. His opportunity and explosiveness indicators are strong, and the recent form profile supports the idea he’s around the action rather than just steering it.

6.00 is a “nice if it happens” number, and Footylab’s fair price is closer to 4.42. The market is basically saying he’s a long-ish chance; Footylab says he’s much closer to a genuine anytime threat in this matchup.

The 10.00 quote might look tempting on the surface, but without a trustworthy probability estimate behind it, it’s guesswork rather than an edge.

From the bench, the route is the same as most middles: a short stint, a tired defensive line, and a crash play or a quick dart off a ruck. The opponent weakness and team environment aren’t screaming “must follow”, and the recent try form indicators don’t force the issue either.

At 16.00 you don’t need much to happen to make it look clever, but you also shouldn’t kid yourself that it’s mispriced. This is closer to a correctly priced longshot than a hidden gem.

Bench forward tries are usually opportunistic: a late set restart, a quick play-the-ball, or a short-ball close to the line. The broader match and opponent context rates well enough to keep him on the watchlist, but nothing here says the market has missed something obvious.

15.00 looks juicy, but it’s basically the going rate for this type of role. If you’re playing it, you’re doing it because you like the game script, not because the number is screaming value.

He’s an elite finisher with a monster base rate and strong recent form, so nobody’s arguing the talent. The issue is that even great wingers don’t score two weeks out of three in the NRL unless everything is humming and the matchup is perfect. One fewer line break, one less overlap, one kick that doesn’t sit up, and that 1.53 looks very skinny.

At 1.53 you’re paying for a result that needs to happen almost two times in three. Footylab’s view is closer to one time in three. If you want to back him, you’re better off waiting for a bigger number than taking the market’s “because he’s DWZ” price.

He’s always going to have chances because he’s a high-volume finisher and the opportunity profile is strong. But winger tries still need the team to win the right moments: good-ball sets, clean shifts, and enough repeat pressure to create overlaps. If Newcastle’s attack is even slightly clunky, that “two in three” requirement becomes a brutal ask.

1.53 is the sort of number you take when you think the try is basically inevitable. Footylab doesn’t. It still likes him as a scorer, just nowhere near enough to justify the short quote.